Tsunami warning: how will Trump’s trade policy impact Asia in 2025?

President Donald Trump will be inaugurated for a second time on 20th January 2025. His trade policies, if enforced, will upend the post-WWII global trading system. Global multinationals and exporters worldwide will face a significantly more difficult business environment.

This may understate the coming change. Trump’s new administration will challenge the global consensus and the accepted wisdoms of modern economics.

In the short term, companies and investors must prepare for tariffs, strained alliances, and impulsive, unilateral policymaking that will be aggressive even compared to Trump’s previous term. Relocating to Vietnam, India, or Mexico to cut costs and sidestep the US-China geopolitical rivalry will no longer shield global companies from uncertainty or further costs.

Significant tariffs on imports from outside the US may make Trump’s first-term trade wars seem trivial. According to his (consistently inconsistent) campaign statements, he may impose 60%-100% tariffs on goods from China and 10%-20% on everything else, no matter where these goods are made.

• President Trump has promised to be a bomb-thrower, using aggressive tactics to benefit “America first”. We should take him at his word.
• His incoming administration will face fewer checks and balances than his first. No trading partner will be entirely spared.
• Opportunities will certainly emerge across Asia for countries who move fast and ingratiate themselves to the US markets.
• All Asian countries will hope to find growth nearer to home and Intra-Asian trade will boom. Those Asian countries which show agility and diplomacy will enjoy great profits, in the coming turbulent seas.
• On balance, India, Japan, and Indonesia look well-placed, but it would be foolish for any Asian companies to be complacent. As ever, fortune will favour those who are most courageous, and canny.
• Technology and Healthcare are poised to thrive regionally. Consumer and Services companies will find room for growth.
• Asian companies should not ignore the European markets, which will look increasingly attractive if the US puts up barriers.
• BDA Partners stands ready to support its financial and strategic clients to take advantage of these fast-flowing waters. Change creates opportunities.

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About BDA Partners

BDA Partners is the global investment banking advisor for Asia. We are a premium provider of Asia-related advice to sophisticated clients globally, with over 25 years’ experience advising on cross-border M&A, capital raising, and financial restructuring. We provide global reach with our teams in New York and London, and true regional depth through our seven Asian offices in Mumbai, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo. BDA has deep expertise in the Chemicals, Consumer & Retail, Health, Industrials, Services, Sustainability and Technology sectors. We work relentlessly to earn our clients’ trust by delivering insightful advice and outstanding outcomes.

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